This electronic supplement contains figures of sensitivity of viscoelastic block model slip-deficit rate estimates and contour plot of mean residual improvement (MRI). Figures S1 and S2 are analogous to Figures 9 and 6b, respectively, in the main article, but the figures in the main article show the results with all the earthquakes in Figure 5 of the main article taken into account, whereas these figures incorporate only the effects of post-1500 C.E. earthquakes.
Figure S1. Sensitivity of viscoelastic block model slip-deficit rate estimates to variations in assumed Maxwell viscosity at a fixed Kelvin viscosity of ηK = 1019 Pa·s for selected fault segments. Here, the historic earthquakes that occurred before 1500 C.E. (Table 1 of the main article) are not taken into account.
Figure S2. Contour plot of MRI (equation 11 in the main article) as a function of assumed viscosity structure for the interseismic Global Positioning System (GPS) data from 1988 to 1999 (Reilinger et al., 2006), before the İzmit earthquake. Here, the historic earthquakes that occurred before 1500 C.E. (Table 1 of the main article) are not taken into account. This figure is analogous to Figure 6b in the main article. This best-fit model is indicated by a red circle and explains the corrected interseismic velocity field v*(ηM,ηK) (equation 8 in the main article) with a mean residual velocity of 3.10 mm/yr, which corresponds to an MRI of 3.40%.
Reilinger, R., S. McClusky, P. Vernant, S. Lawrence, S. Ergintav, R. Cakmak, H. Ozener, F. Kadirov, I. Guiliev, R. Stepanyan, et al. (2006). GPS constraints on continental deformation in the Africa–Arabia–Eurasia continental collision zone and implications for the dynamics of plate interactions, J. Geophys. Res. 111, B5, doi: 10.1029/2005JB004051.
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