Electronic Supplement to
Bayesian Forecast Evaluation and Ensemble Earthquake Forecasting

by Warner Marzocchi, J. Douglas Zechar, and Thomas H. Jordan

Table S2. Likelihoods for Each Testing Phase without Helmstetter et al. Forecast

Testing Phase Model
Ebel
et al.
Holliday
et al.
Wiemer &
Schorlemmer
Zechar.1 Zechar.2 BMA SMA gSMA
1 3.85E-9 2.76E-5 1.33E-4 1.36E-5 1.19E-5 5.51E-5 5.51E-5 5.51E-5
2 1.29E-4 1.14E-4 1.53E-4 6.92E-5 5.79E-5 1.42E-4 1.18E-4 1.31E-4
3 1.00E-5 1.17E-5 4.69E-6 1.81E-5 1.65E-5 6.53E-6 1.19E-5 8.76E-6
4 4.99E-13 7.09E-5 7.66E-5 6.04E-5 4.77E-5 7.39E-5 5.97E-5 7.00E-5
5 3.77E-6 3.24E-7 4.11E-10 2.90E-5 2.84E-5 1.99E-6 8.42E-6 4.64E-6
6 3.18E-8 2.52E-5 4.35E-5 9.41E-6 8.28E-6 9.96E-6 2.49E-5 1.70E-5
7 4.05E-9 7.77E-5 3.00E-4 3.09E-5 2.70E-5 3.61E-5 1.25E-4 7.41E-5
8 2.33E-5 5.41E-7 7.88E-7 1.82E-5 1.52E-5 1.34E-5 7.72E-6 9.97E-6
9 3.87E-10 4.52E-8 1.73E-6 3.17E-7 3.80E-7 3.31E-7 6.36E-7 4.49E-7
10 3.21E-8 4.15E-5 1.53E-5 8.09E-6 7.92E-6 8.10E-6 2.02E-5 1.39E-5
11 4.04E-9 8.94E-5 1.65E-4 3.74E-5 3.33E-5 3.72E-5 9.29E-5 6.67E-5
12 6.98E-6 4.82E-6 3.49E-6 8.08E-6 7.19E-6 7.75E-6 5.56E-6 6.62E-6
13 1.96E-9 1.03E-5 7.56E-5 1.05E-5 9.33E-6 1.10E-5 3.40E-5 2.47E-5
14 2.59E-6 4.84E-5 7.61E-7 3.69E-6 4.00E-6 3.94E-6 1.34E-5 8.63E-6
15 2.84E-7 5.12E-6 7.08E-8 3.71E-7 4.03E-7 7.76E-7 1.38E-6 1.26E-6
16 2.00E-8 1.67E-5 3.79E-6 5.57E-6 5.09E-6 1.32E-5 8.03E-6 1.22E-5
17 1.06E-6 1.39E-6 8.65E-7 6.73E-7 6.19E-7 1.25E-6 9.61E-7 1.13E-6
18 2.78E-13 1.08E-5 2.01E-6 7.65E-6 6.14E-6 1.05E-5 5.40E-6 9.17E-6
19 1.72E-6 7.19E-7 2.26E-6 2.38E-7 2.01E-7 6.93E-7 1.19E-6 7.49E-7
20 6.71E-5 3.67E-6 6.58E-5 1.42E-5 1.36E-5 3.85E-6 3.30E-5 9.82E-6
21 2.16E-1 7.02E-2 1.23E-1 1.59E-1 1.61E-1 7.59E-2 1.28E-1 9.10E-2
                 
Joint log-likelihood -330.85 -237.31 -243.23 -238.47 -240.19 -238.27 -228.15 -232.08

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