Electronic Supplement to
GEAR1: A Global Earthquake Activity Rate Model Constructed from Geodetic Strain Rates and Smoothed Seismicity

by P. Bird, D. D. Jackson, Y. Y. Kagan, C. Kreemer, and R. S. Stein

Table S1. Results of 8-Year Retrospective Tests against Shallow Events from Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT), 2005–2012

Threshold	m 5.767+ Earthquakes (N = 1694)			m 7+ Earthquakes (N = 90)
Model Class, c or d	Specificity (I0)	Success (I1)	S-Statistic	Specificity (I0)	Success (I1)	S-Statistic
Envelope	3.607	4.00	0.960	3.745	4.0	0.61
Tectonic (c = 0)	4.034	3.69	0.023	4.347	3.8	0.35
Linear, c = 0.1	3.884	3.89	0.426	4.154	4.0	0.46
Linear, c = 0.2	3.779	3.98	0.806	4.012	4.1	0.54
Linear, c = 0.3	3.704	4.05	0.932	3.903	4.1	0.56
Linear, c = 0.4	3.653	4.09	0.971	3.819	4.1	0.56
Linear, c = 0.5	3.624	4.11	0.983	3.758	4.1	0.62
Linear, c = 0.6	3.616	4.12	0.986	3.720	4.1	0.62
Linear, c = 0.7	3.629	4.11	0.977	3.704	4.1	0.63
Linear, c = 0.8	3.665	4.08	0.969	3.713	4.0	0.59
Linear, c = 0.9	3.728	4.03	0.884	3.750	3.9	0.57
Seismicity (c=1)	3.829	3.93	0.584	3.829	3.8	0.48
Tectonic (d = 0)	4.034	3.69	0.023	4.347	3.8	0.35
Log Linear, d=0.1	3.960	3.85	0.234	4.232	4.0	0.43
Log Linear, d=0.2	3.906	3.98	0.572	4.143	4.1	0.52
Log Linear, d=0.3	3.865	4.09	0.827	4.072	4.2	0.55
Log Linear, d=0.4	3.836	4.16	0.927	4.013	4.2	0.54
Log Linear, d=0.5	3.815	4.21	0.968	3.962	4.2	0.58
Log Linear, d=0.6 (H*)	3.801	4.22	0.971	3.917	4.2	0.59
Log Linear, d=0.7	3.793	4.20	0.962	3.877	4.2	0.59
Log Linear, d=0.8	3.792	4.15	0.931	3.843	4.1	0.58
Log Linear, d=0.9	3.802	4.06	0.833	3.823	3.9	0.54
Seismicity (d=1)	3.829	3.93	0.584	3.829	3.8	0.48

m, magnitude; N, number of test earthquakes; c and d, mixing coefficients of hybrid forecasts, defined in main text; H*, preferred hybrid forecast; I₀ and I₁, forecast scores of Kagan (2009); S-statistic defined by Zechar et al. (2010).

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