Electronic Supplement to
Automatic Aftershock Forecasting: A Test Using Real-Time Seismicity Data in Japan

by Takahiro Omi, Yosihiko Ogata, Katsuhiko Shiomi, Bogdan Enescu, Kaoru Sawazaki, and Kazuyuki Aihara

Table S2. The Same as Table S1 but in the Case of the Forecast of Aftershocks with M >3.95

M >3.95			Forecast Using the Hi-Net Catalog		Forecast Using the JMA Catalog
Sequence	Forecast Time Frame (hr)	n	Information Gain	Standard Error	Information Gain	Standard Error
2000 western Tottori	3–6	0	1.23	0.00	1.70	0.00
	6–12	2	0.25	0.29	0.59	0.91
	12–24	4	−0.25	0.21	−0.82	1.19
	24–48	2	−0.45	0.49	0.07	0.16
2004 Chuetsu	3–6	7	5.09	3.59	4.42	5.51
	6–12	3	0.22	1.99	−1.92	2.67
	12–24	9	6.90	3.56	8.27	4.76
	24–48	7	5.16	3.44	6.57	4.71
2005 West Off Fukuoka	3–6	2	−0.08	0.09	−0.09	0.30
	6–12	3	0.05	0.90	0.09	0.84
	12–24	0	−0.83	0.00	−1.99	0.00
	24–48	2	−0.33	0.60	−0.63	0.93
2007 Noto Peninsula	3–6	1	0.17	0.47	−0.46	0.30
	6–12	3	−0.40	0.25	0.36	1.01
	12–24	2	−0.18	0.36	−0.78	1.32
	24–48	4	0.23	0.59	1.01	2.03
2007 Off Chuetsu	3–6	1	−0.31	0.19	−0.13	0.16
	6–12	3	0.40	0.88	0.36	0.63
	12–24	0	−0.50	0.00	−0.60	0.00
	24–48	0	−0.60	0.00	0.17	0.00
2008 Iwate–Miyagi Nairiku	3–6	7	1.09	1.67	1.06	1.11
	6–12	2	−1.21	0.63	−0.33	0.28
	12–24	11	5.02	2.95	3.46	1.97
	24–48	2	−2.34	1.03	−1.58	0.91
2014 northern Nagano	3–6	0	0.74	0.00	0.58	0.00
	6–12	0	0.92	0.00	0.78	0.00
	12–24	1	−0.16	0.60	−0.23	0.81
	24–48	0	0.01	0.00	0.28	0.00
All sequences	3–6	18	7.93	3.99	7.09	5.64
	6–12	16	0.23	2.47	−0.08	3.19
	12–24	27	10.01	4.68	7.30	5.51
	24–48	17	1.69	3.72	5.90	5.29
	3–48	78	19.85	7.60	20.22	10.02

Hi-net, High Sensitivity Seismograph Network; JMA, Japan Meteorological Agency.

[ Back ]