This electronic supplement contains additional material on the 1817 (Table S1) and 1861 earthquakes (Table S3). It contains also a set of five tables (Tables S2, S4, S5, S6, and S7) detailing the intensity values in European Macroseismic Scale 1998 (EMS-98) assigned for the earthquakes discussed in the main article, with an indication of the place name and its regional unit as of today, the place name as quoted by the sources, which sources mentioned what place, and how many items they made available for each place. Sources are distinguished between press and other sources, when this is the case. They are supplemented by Table S8, supplying all the Greek newspaper issues consulted with reference to the 1861, 1888, and 1889 earthquakes. It contains also additional material on “Testing Location and Magnitude,” with Tables S9 and S10, and Figures S1–S3.
To appreciate the predictive power of SISmiques/asismiques d’un systeme de faille actives dans la région ouest du Rift de CORinthe, Grèce (SISCOR) and Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) European Earthquake Catalogue (SHEEC) strategies, we analyze three recent earthquakes, 24 February 1981, 18 November 1992, and 15 June 1995, in the Gulf of Corinth, with both intensity data points (University of Thessaloniki, 2003) and instrumental parameters. For the latter, we considered the catalogs by Papazachos et al. (2010), Makropoulos et al. (2012), and Storchak et al. (2013), together with the solution proposed by Hatzfeld et al. (1996) and Bernard et al. (1997) for the 1992 and 1995 earthquakes, respectively (Table S8).
Figure S2 shows the instrumental epicenters of the three test earthquakes and those determined from intensity data points (IDPs) according to the SHEEC and SISCOR strategies.
The distances between the macroseismic epicenters determined with the two adopted strategies and the considered instrumental locations range from 2 to 19 km, and in most of the cases are less than 15 km for the SHEEC strategy and less than 10 km for the SISCOR strategy. Comparable differences (up to 19 km) exist among instrumental locations of the same earthquake, according to catalogs (Fig. S2).
The uncertainties assessed for the macroseismic location range between 2 and 12 km for the SHEEC strategy and 4 and 9 km for the SISCOR strategy. These values are comparable with the differences among instrumental estimates.
One of the main reasons for such differences resides in the obvious lack of intensity data close to the epicenter when it is located at sea. Considering that in the study area the width of the Gulf of Corinth is about 7–17 km, these values can represent the minimum possible distance for the highest intensity values for earthquakes located in the gulf. As a consequence, the uncertainty of the macroseismic location of such earthquakes can hardly be lower than 17 km. Such an uncertainty is even higher in the case of historical earthquakes and might vary depending on both the availability of intensity data points and the strategy used to assess the location.
Although the macroseismic magnitudes estimated for the test earthquakes deviate from the instrumental values by up to 0.6 magnitude units (Fig. S3), in all the cases the two alternative strategies provide consistent, almost coinciding, macroseismic estimates. This is not verified for the instrumental values, which vary by up to 0.3 magnitude units, according to different catalogs. The differences between macroseismic and instrumental magnitude estimates are thus comparable with those among instrumental estimates.
For the 1995 earthquake, the macroseismic estimates are 0.5–0.6 units less than the instrumental values, that is, both around 5.9. The decay of intensity with distance for the 1995 earthquake is very similar and consistent with that of the 11 November 1992 earthquake (Fig. S4), for which the instrumental magnitudes are 5.9–6.0 and which fit the P&P97 intensity prediction equation (IPE) of an Mw 5.9 earthquake better than that of an Mw 6.4.
Both the considered strategies overestimate the magnitude of the 1981 earthquake by 0.1–0.4 magnitude units. This discrepancy may derive from a general overestimate of the macroseismic intensities, probably cumulating the effects of three strong events that occurred less than 20 km away from each other in less than a week (Table S9).
As shown above, epistemic uncertainties in location and magnitude affect both instrumental and macroseismic determinations. As for macroseismic determinations, the epistemic uncertainty that we quantify through the use of two alternative strategies for historical data should be considered a minimum uncertainty estimate.
Table S1. Places, sources, and EMS-98 intensities for the 14 May 1748 earthquake.
Table S2. Full-text description of effects and the tsunami for the 23 August 1817 earthquake.
Table S3. Places, sources, and EMS-98 intensities for the 23 August 1817 earthquake.
Table S4. Five digests of the macroseismic effects of the 26 December 1861 earthquake from as many publications of J. Schmidt.
Table S5. Places, sources, and EMS-98 intensities for the 26 December 1861 earthquake.
Table S6. Places, sources, and EMS-98 intensities for the 9 September 1888 earthquake.
Table S7. Places, sources, and EMS-98 intensities for the 25 August 1889 earthquake.
Table S8. Greek newspaper issues consulted.
Table S9. Instrumental parameters of the three test earthquakes.
Table S10. Magnitude estimates for the 1981 Gulf of Corinth earthquake sequence from the International Seismological Centre-Global Earthquake Model (ISC-GEM) catalog.
Figure S1. Instrumental epicenters of the three test earthquakes according to Pap10 (Papazachos et al., 2010), Mak12 (Makropoulos et al., 2012), ISC-GEM (Storchack et al., 2013), Hatz96 (Hatzfeld et al., 1996), and Ber97 (Bernard et al., 1997) compared with the macroseismic locations obtained with SHEEC and SISCOR strategies. (a) 24 February 1981, (b) 18 November 1992, and (c) 15 June 1995.
Figure S2. Instrumental versus macroseimic magnitudes for the three test earthquakes (Pap10, Papazachos et al., 2010; Mak12, Makropoulos et al., 2012; ISC-GEM, Storchak et al., 2013; Hatz96, Hatzfeld et al., 1996; Ber97, Bernard et al., 1997).
Figure S3. Intensity decay with distance for the 18 November 1992 and 15 June 1995 earthquakes according to macroseismic observations (data from University of Thessaloniki, 2003) and comparison with the P&P97 IPE, assuming a h = 12 km deep event with Mw 5.9 or Mw 6.4.
The original digitized version of the periodical press listed in the references as published sources were consulted at: (1) the online section of the Library of the Greek Parliament, Athens, available at http://catalog.parliament.gr/ (last accessed March 2016); (2) the website of the Press Museum, Patras, at http://www.mouseiotipou.gr/ (last accessed November 2015). Intensity data points of the three test earthquakes are from http://www.itsak.gr/en/page/data/macroseismic_data/ (last accessed March 2017).
Akropolis (1888e, f). Athens. (e) 2 (14) September, no. 2268; (f) 3 (15) September, no. 2269 (in Greek).
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Anegersis (1861). Athens, 24 December (5 January 1862), no. 59 (in Greek).
Anonymous (1817a). Correspondence from Aigio, 29 August 1817, Gazzetta Ionia, Corfù, 20 September, n. 169, 5–6 (in Italian).
Anonymous (1817b). Correspondence from Patras, 8 September 1817, Journal des Débats politiques et littéraires, Paris, 21 November, 1 (in French).
Anonymous (1817c). Correspondence from Constantinople, 15 September, Hermes o Logios, Vienna, 15 November, n. 22, 597 (in Greek).
Anonymous (1817d). Correspondence from Constantinople, 1 December, Journal des Débats, Paris, 10 January, 1 (in French).
Anonymous (1818). Correspondence from Constantinople, 27 December 1817 and 8 January 1818, Hermes o Logios, Vienna, 1 March, n. 5, 101 (in Greek).
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Avgi (1861a, b, d, f, h). Athens. (a) 14 (26) December, no. 961; (b) 16 (28) December, no. 962; (d) 20 December (1 January 1862), no. 964; (f) 23 December (4 January 1862), no. 966; (h) 28 December (9 January 1862), no. 968 (in Greek).
Bernard, P., P. Briole, B. Meyer, H. Lyon-Caen, J.-M. Gomez, C. Tiberi, C. Berge, R. Cattin, D. Hatzfeld, C. Lachet, et al. (1997). The Ms = 6.2, June 15, 1995 Aigion earthquake (Greece): Evidence for low angle normal faulting in the Corinth rift, J. Seismol. 1, 131–150.
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Des Graz, C. (1888). National Archives (UK), Public Record Office, Foreign Office, Political and Other Departments, 32/601, General Correspondence before 1906, Greece, August–December 1888, Substitute of the Consul in Athens, Charles des Graz, Despatch n. 208, Athens, 11 September, ff. 89r–90r.
Elpis (1862). Athens, 1 (13) January, no. 1134 (in Greek).
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Ephimeris (1889a–e, g, i–j, l–m, o). Athens. (a) 14 (26) August, no. 226; (b) 15 (27) August, no. 227; (c) 16 (28) August, no. 228; (d) 17 (29) August, no. 229; (e) 18 (30) August, no. 230; (g) 22 August (3 September), no. 234; (i) 25 August (6 September), no. 237; (j) 26 August (7 September), no. 238; (l) 28 August (9 September), no. 240; (m) 29 August (10 September), no. 241; (o) 8 (20) September, no. 251 (in Greek).
Epitheoresis (1888a–c, g–h, p, s). Athens. (a) August 29 (September 10), no. 242; (b) August 30 (September 11), no. 243; (c) August 31 (September 12), no. 244; (g) September 5 (17), no. 249; (h) September 6 (18), no. 250; (p) September 15 (27), no. 259; (s) September 18 (30), no. 262 (in Greek).
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Hatzfeld, D., D. Kementzetzidou, V. Karakostas, M. Ziazia, S. Nothard, D. Diagourtas, A. Deschamps, G. Karakaisis, P. Papadimitriou, M. Scordilis, et al. (1996). The Galaxidi earthquake of 18 November 1992: A possible asperity within the normal fault system of the Gulf of Corinth (Greece), Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 86, no. 6, 1987–1991.
Hora (1888a–b, e). Athens. (a) 29 August (10 September), no. 661; (b) 30 August (11 September), no. 662; (e) 5 (17) September, no. 668 (in Greek).
Hora (1889a–f). Athens. (a) 14 (26) August, no. 277; (b) 15 (27) August, no. 278; (c) 21 August (2 September), no. 284; (d) 27 August (8 September), no. 290; (e) 30 August (11 September), no. 293; (f) 7 (19) September, no. 301 (in Greek).
Issel, A., and G. Agamennone (1894). Cronistoria sismica di Zante, Annali dell'Ufficio Centrale di Meteorologia e Geodinamica XV, no. I, 92–262 (in Italian).
Lappo (1748). Letter of the Venetian consul Lappo to the Venetian Governor in Zante, in Cronistoria sismica di Zante, Issel and Agamennone (Editors, 1894), Annali dell'Ufficio Centrale di Meteorologia e Geodinamica XV, no. I, 92–262, on 104 (in Italian).
Makropoulos, K., G. Kaviris, and V. Kouskouna (2012). An updated and extended earthquake catalogue for Greece and adjacent areas since 1900, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 12, 1425–1430.
Merimna (1861). Athens, 18 (30) December, no. 249 (in Greek).
Monson, E. (1889). National Archives (UK), Public Record Office, Foreign Office, Political and Other Departments, 32/608, General Correspondence before 1906, Greece, August–October 1889, Consul in Athens, Edmund Monson, Despatch n. 218, Athens, 26 August 1889, ff. 108a–b.
Nea Ephimeris (1888a–c, e–f). Athens. (a) 29 August (10 September), no. 242; (b) 30 August (11 September), no. 243; (c) 31 August (12 September), no. 244; (e) 2 (14) September, no. 246; (f) 4 (16) September, no. 248 (in Greek).
Nea Ephimeris (1889a–c, g–h). Athens. (a) 14 (26) August, no. 226; (b) 15 (27) August, no. 227; (c) 16 (28) August, no. 228; (g) 23 August (4 September), no. 235; (h) 25 August (6 September), no. 237 (in Greek).
Neue Freie Presse (1888). Vienna. 22 September, no. 8649 (in German).
Ornstein, B. (1889). Das Erdbeben von Vostizza, Das Ausland, Stuttgart-München, Bd. 62, 15, 281–284, 310–314 (in German).
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