Special Issue on Earthquake Physics, Earthquake Forecasting, and Beyond – 50 Years After the 1975 Ms 7.3 Haicheng Earthquake
This year marks the 50th anniversary of the 1975 Ms 7.3 Haicheng earthquake in northeast China—an event widely recognized as a significant milestone in seismological history. It remains arguably the only major earthquake to have been “officially predicted” prior to its occurrence, making it a landmark case in the study of earthquake precursors and forecasting. As such, this anniversary offers a timely and compelling opportunity to reflect on the Haicheng prediction’s legacy and to advance the science that builds on it.
Despite different types of geophysical and geodetic anomalies found prior to the Haicheng earthquake, the most decisive factor for pre-event evacuation of nearly one million local residents was the foreshock sequence that intensified two weeks prior to the mainshock, with the largest event (M 5.1) occurring ~12 hours in advance. However, how to precisely identify foreshocks and other precursory signals and eventually transfer that information to the decision-making process is challenging, and has motivated numerous studies in relevant fields.
Over the past five decades, seismic monitoring capabilities have expanded dramatically, and our understanding of the physical processes underlying earthquakes—through field observations, laboratory experiments and advances in theoretical and computational modeling—has deepened considerably. Nevertheless, earthquake forecasting over all space-time scales (from local and short-term to regional and long-term) and earthquake predictability continues to stand as one of the most formidable challenges in Earth science, partly because robustly identifying precursory signals before damaging earthquakes is still extremely difficult. Moreover, whether such signals possess consistent statistical significance and can be linked to (geo-)physical processes applicable over broader geographic areas remains an open question.
Therefore, this special issue seeks to capture a range of perspectives and recent scientific developments in earthquake forecasting and measuring and understanding precursory processes and phenomena in the earthquake cycle. We invite contributions that explore, but are not limited to, the following topics:
- Foreshock seismicity patterns and mechanisms observed in both natural settings and laboratory experiments
- Geochemical and hydrological precursors to seismic activity
- Pre-seismic aseismic slip and deformation phenomena
- Geodetic and geological constraints on rupture initiation and predictability
- Advances in the physical modeling of precursory signals and fault behavior
- Societal and historical considerations in the practice and communication of earthquake prediction
- Applications of statistical, machine learning and other forecasting methodologies
Guest Editors for this Special Issue:
- Hongfeng Yang, The Chinese University of Hong Kong (hyang@cuhk.edu.hk)
- Zhigang Peng, Georgia Institute of Technology, (zpeng@gatech.edu)
- Shengji Wei, Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences/Nanyang Technological University, (shjwei@ntu.edu.sg)
- Yosuke Aoki, Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo, (yaoki@eri.u-tokyo.ac.jp)
- Thomas Goebel, Center for Earthquake Research and Information, University of Memphis, (thgoebel@memphis.edu)
Deadline for Submission: 30 January 2026
Articles accepted to this BSSA Special Issue will be published online soon after acceptance and collectively in print in the October 2026 issue. Papers will be reviewed as they are received and published online prior to the print issue.
In preparing manuscripts, authors must follow the BSSA author guidelines at https://www.seismosoc.org/publications/bssa-submission-guidelines.
Papers must be submitted via the BSSA online submission system (www.editorialmanager.com/bssa) under the category “Earthquake Forecasting.”
Please address questions about scientific issues to the guest editors or BSSA Editor-in-Chief P. Martin Mai at bssaeditor@seismosoc.org. Submission-related questions should be addressed to the BSSA Editorial Office at bssamss@seismosoc.org.