Physics-Based Ground Motion Modeling

Join us in Vancouver in October 2023 for a new SSA conference on regionalized, empirical and physics-based ground motion modeling, co-sponsored with the Seismological Society of Japan. We’re looking forward to sharing new research and fostering a lively discussion about the ways the field is expanding.


Modern ground-motion modeling for improved source physics and hazard uses both simulations and empirical data for quantitative prediction of ground motions. Ergodic models that grouped similar tectonic regions around the world to make use of large data sets now share the field with spatially varying models which harness the knowledge from ergodic models but are specific to a region. At the same time, physics-based simulations that have often focused on a single region, fault or earthquake are now broadening their application to regions or faults not previously considered.

These converging trends make it important to share emerging technologies and different perspectives on how these models are built, and how they might be applied across a global community.

We invite members of the seismological and engineering communities to how to ensure that these models are realistic, globally consistent, and applicable to a large range of magnitudes of different earthquake types.

Some of the major topics this meeting will cover are:

  • Complex kinematic source modeling
  • Dynamic rupture propagation analysis
  • Regional differences in quantification of path effects
  • Physical modeling issues on site effects
  • Empirical modeling issues on site effects
  • Modeling the empirical source effects for inputs into models and predictions
  • Overall prediction accuracy
  • Implications for extrapolation to new regions or outside of the data range


Annemarie Baltay, U.S. Geological Survey

Hiroshi Kawase, Kyoto University